Prediksi Harga Saham Sektor Petrokimia Menggunakan Model ARIMA: Studi Kasus PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk

Abstract

The purpose of this investigation was to examine and forecast the stock price of PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk (TPIA) The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach was used for analysis in this study. The tendency for stock prices to fluctuate means that investors require forecasting analysis capable of providing an overview of stock price conditions in the coming period. The quantitative method used in this study is time series analysis based on daily stock price data for PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk from January 1, 2023, to May 4, 2026, comprising 788 data points. The analysis stages were conducted through descriptive statistical analysis, an Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) plots for model identification, and residual analysis and forecasting for model evaluation. The findings show the ARIMA (0,1,2) model is the best fit as it effectively captures TPIA’s stock price movements. The forecasting findings indicate TPIA’s stock price is probably going to stay steady in the coming period without experiencing extreme fluctuations. Investors are anticipated to benefit from this investigation in understanding stock price patterns and serve as a foundation for making investment choices in the petrochemical sector within the Indonesian capital market.