ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL DAN PERAMALAN HARGA SAHAM PT. SEMEN INDONESIA, TBK. MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN ARIMA PERIODE 2022-2026

Authors

  • Nabila Yulianty Simanjorang Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Cenderawasih
  • Siti Nur Azizah Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Cenderawasih
  • Sitta Lu’lu’atul Jannah Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Cenderawasih
  • Mathilda Firdayanti Lelang Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Cenderawasih

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61722/jaem.v3i2.10420

Keywords:

stock price forecasting, ARIMA, SMGR, time series, investment, capital market

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and forecast the stock price movement of PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (SMGR) using the ARIMA method for the 2024–2026 period. The study uses a descriptive quantitative approach with secondary data in the form of daily stock prices from Investing.com. The analysis was conducted through stationarity tests, differencing, ACF and PACF analysis, model selection based on AIC, and forecasting. The results show that ARIMA(2,1,2) is the best model with the lowest AIC value of 6478.915. The model produces an RMSE of 88.80, MAE of 64.45, and MAPE of 2.02%, indicating a very good level of prediction accuracy. The forecasting results indicate that SMGR’s stock price tends to decline in the next 20 periods, reflecting still weak market sentiment.

References

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Published

2026-05-30

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 2 (2026): Juni

Section

Articles